17.03.2025 12:05 PM
USD/CAD 貨幣對本周以謹慎態度開始，波動於1.4350以上的狹窄範圍內，並保持在50日簡單移動平均線(SMA)之上。然而，基本面因素顯示可能的下行風險。
美加貿易談判的積極進展，加上原油價格近期上漲，支持了依賴商品的加拿大元，對該貨幣對施加了下行壓力。由於美國保證將繼續對也門胡塞武裝的打擊，直到其停止攻擊，紅海局勢緊張加劇，油價達到兩周高位，此情況也影響了市場。此外，美國美元的空頭情緒為 USD/CAD 創造了負面前景。
由於擔心特朗普加徵關稅可能對經濟造成負面影響，美國美元指數保持在數月低點附近。較弱的通脹數據和勞動市場降溫的跡象可能促使聯邦儲備局今年進行降息，進一步限制美元多頭。
交易者應密切關注美國經濟數據的發布，包括零售銷售數據和Empire State製造業指數，這可能會在北美交易時段為貨幣對提供一些短期動能。然而，本周的重點仍然是週三的聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)貨幣政策會議，這將對美元產生重大影響，並為 USD/CAD 設定方向。
從技術角度來看，空頭應等待1.4350支撐位以下的疲弱確認，該位置為50日SMA所在位置，然後才開立新的賣單。此外，日線圖的振盪指標尚未切入負值區域，這表明需要進一步確認以得到明確的空頭信號。
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